To enter system-level forecast period parameters:Forecast parameters filter transactions to determine product demand so the system can make a more accurate demand forecast. Use the Forecast Parameters For Demand Calculation control maintenance record to define system-wide forecast parameters.
You can assign forecast parameters at the branch level that apply to all products in that branch, unless overridden at the buy line or the product level. These include parameters to filter demand, set the forecast method and forecast period, and to calculate a product's economic order quantity (EOQ).
To enter system-level forecast period parameters:
From the System > System Files menu, select Control Maintenance to display the Control Maintenance screen.
In the Keyword field, enter forecast parameters for demand to display the Control Forecast Parameters Maintenance screen.
Complete the following fields, as needed:
Note: Unless otherwise stated, there is no default setting and the system leaves the field blank.
|
Field |
Description |
|
Branch |
Branch for which to define forecast period parameters. The default is Branch 1. |
|
Forecast Method |
Whether the system uses the standard or median forecasting method for this branch. The default is Standard (S). |
|
Seasonal (Y/N) |
Whether the branch sells more of certain products at certain times of the year than at other times and is therefore seasonal. The default setting is No (N). |
|
Lost Sale |
The maximum number of days in the forecast period that the system uses to increase an item's raw demand to compensate for lost sales of a product. |
|
Exceptional % |
The exceptional sales percentage for the product. The system eliminates from demand forecasting any sale exceeding the percentage difference between the two largest sales in the forecast period. |
|
Trend % |
The positive or negative percent to change the calculated demand forecast in anticipation of a trend increasing or decreasing the demand. |
|
EOQ $ |
The theoretical cost of reordering and restocking a single item, used in calculating the EOQ of the product. We recommend using 1.00 for $1.00. The default is $1.00. |
|
EOQ % |
The carry cost percentage used in calculating the EOQ of the product. We recommend using 28 for 28%. The default is 28. |
|
Auto-Trend |
Whether to apply an automatic trend for seasonal products. The system calculates and applies a trend based on recent demand compared to the previous year's demand. The default is No (N). |
|
Max Decrease% |
The maximum negative trend to apply to the demand forecast for the product. This parameter only applies to seasonal products with the Auto Trend flag enabled. |
|
Max Increase% |
The maximum positive trend to apply to the demand forecast for the product. This parameter only applies to seasonal products with the Auto Trend flag enabled. |
|
Include Directs |
Whether to include direct shipments in the demand calculation for the product. The default is No (N). |
In the Regular section, enter non-seasonal forecast parameters:
|
Field |
Description |
|
Hits |
The number of times an item sold within the regular Min Days and Max Days range. The system uses hits to calculate the forecast period for calculating demand for a non-seasonal product. The Demand Hit Definition control maintenance record determines how the system calculates hits based on sales orders. The default is 25. |
|
Min Days |
Minimum days used with regular Hits to determine the forecast period for calculating demand for a non-seasonal product. The default is 90. |
|
Max Days |
Maximum days used with regular Hits to determine the forecast period for calculating demand for a non-seasonal product. The default is 365. |
Click here to see an example of regular forecast parameters.
Note: If the date of the first transaction for a product is less than the defined Max Days, the system uses the date of the first transaction as Max Days. If the date of the first transaction for a product is also less than the defined Min Days, the program uses the date of the first transaction as Min Days.
In the Seasonal section, enter seasonal forecast parameters:
|
Field |
Description |
|
Hits |
The number of times an item sold within the seasonal Min Days and Max Days range. The system uses hits to calculate the forecast period for calculating demand for a seasonal product. The Demand Hit Definition control maintenance record determines how the system calculates hits based on sales orders. The default is 10. |
|
Min Days |
Minimum days used with seasonal Hits to determine the forecast period for calculating demand for a seasonal product. The default is 42. |
|
Max Days |
Maximum days used with seasonal Hits to determine the forecast period for calculating demand for a seasonal product. The default is 122. |
Click here to see an example of seasonal forecast parameters.
Note: If the date of the first transaction for a product is less than the defined Max Days, the system uses the date of the first transaction as Max Days. If the date of the first transaction for a product is also less than the defined Min Days, the program uses the date of the first transaction as Min Days.
Press Esc to save changes and exit the screen.
See Also: